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Mathematical sports betting strategy: algorithm for calculating valuation odds



Mathematical bets are not liked by bookmakers. If you estimate the risks and bet according to the strategy, the profit of the BK will fall.

Mathematical sports betting is a comprehensive approach to betting based on the value of the outcome and bank management strategy. In this article, we’ll take apart margin and valuation bets, and calculate the mathematical expectation of profit and the probability of a losing streak.

Sports betting strategies

Strategy is a systematic approach to financial management in sports betting.

We will highlight five popular strategies:

Kelly criterion;

Martingale or overtaking strategy;

Dalembert strategy;


Fixed percentage.

What is margin and how to find it

Odds is the probability of the outcome taking into account the bookmaker’s margin.

Margin – the commission of a bookmaker company. At the expense of it BK stays in profit. At the end of a match or tournament the bookmaker can be in the red, but in the distance the margin will bring the office in the plus.

Calculate the probability of the event according to the formula:

P = 1 / K, where K is the odds.

Determine the size of the margin by the formula:

M = (S – 1) x 100%, where S is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes of one market.

For example, in the Juventus – AC Milan fight the bookmakers have put quotations: 1.60 for the home team, 4.20 for a draw and 5.60 for the away team. Let’s calculate the odds:

Juventus win – 0.625: 1 / 1.60.

Draw – 0.2381: 1 / 4.20.

Victory for AC Milan – 0.1786: 1 / 5.60.

Calculating the margin:

S = 1.0417: 0.625 + 0.2381 + 0.1786.

The margin that the bookmaker put in this event is equal to 4.17%: (1.0417 – 1) x 100%.

How to determine the gross bet

Bookmaker can not accurately estimate the probability of the outcome, although analysts take into account many game and non-game factors. When analyzing unpopular championships BC may not know a number of parameters. Some outcomes turn out to be underestimated. Bets on them are called valuations.

In front of you a valuy if:

K x P > 1, where K – the odds, P – the probability according to your calculations.

Here is an example: in the match “Athletic Bilbao” – “Atletico Madrid” bookmaker offers odds 3.60 on success of the hosts, 3.05 on a draw and 2.25 on the victory of the guests.

You have analyzed the statistics of the teams and concluded that the probability of a draw is 38%.

Let’s evaluate the bet:

3.05 х 0.38 = 1.159 > 1. In this case, the bet is a valuation bet. On such events, it is recommended that bets are made by Kelly strategy.

Kelly Criterion is a bankroll management strategy by which a player calculates his bet amount depending on past results and the current money amount.

Determine the Kelly Criterion bet amount using the formula:

((K x P – 1) / (K – 1)) x R x B, where K is the odds, P is the probability according to your calculations, B is your bank, R is the percentage of bets won.

If 45 bets out of 100 win, R = 0.45. We recommend to use R = 0.25 for the first 100 bets.

Mathematical expectation in sports betting and dispersion

The mathematical expectation of profit is the expected profit from a set of bets with the same probability of one event or another.

Calculate the mathematical expectation of profit using the formula:

N x F x (K x P – 1), where N is the number of bets made, P is the probability according to your calculations, K is the odds, F is the bet size.

If you correctly estimated the probability of a draw in the match Athletic Bilbao – Atletico Madrid and make 30 bets according to the same principle for the amount of 2000 rubles, the expected profit will be 9540 rubles: 30 x 2000 x (3.05 x 0.38 – 1).

Dispersion is an uneven distribution of the event probability value in relation to its mathematical expectation.

For example, flipping a symmetrical coin has a 50% chance of producing heads or tails. In reality, a coin may fall several times in a row. With many repetitions, the ratio of heads to tails will approach 50%.

With risky bankroll management, the variance can put you in the red. Range will even out the variance.

Determine the probabilities of a series of losses using the formula:

Ms = (1 – 1 / K) ^ N x 100%, where N is the number of losses in the series.

For example, some professional gamblers prefer to bet on favorites and choose events with odds of 1.25. Chances of success when betting on such events are 80%. But to win 2,500 rubles you need to risk the amount of 10,000 rubles.

In reality, you might lose several times in a row, in which case there is a chance of losing your whole bankroll. To avoid this, use Kelly’s mathematical strategy and consider the probability of a losing streak.

Let’s calculate the probability of two losses in a row when betting on an event with odds of 1.25:

Ms = 4%: (1 – 1 / 1.25) ^ 2 х 100%.

If you correctly estimate the probability of the outcomes and learn how to distribute the bank on one of the strategies, mathematical sports betting can be profitable.

source: Liontips

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5 Factors to Consider When Choosing Baseball Trading Pins



Is there anything more social than a game of baseball? Ever since the first official baseball game was played in 1846, Americans have loved the competition and camaraderie of the sport.

However, if you want to continue the fun off the field, one of the best ways is by designing baseball trading pins for your team. These are small, wearable pins, featuring your team’s logo—they’re lots of fun to trade and collect!

If your local team is thinking of creating your own pin, here are five factors to consider before placing your order.

1. Budget

When creating custom trading pins, budget is going to be the biggest consideration. Small teams might not have much extra cash to invest in pins, so you might have to shop around to find cheaper trading pins that meet your needs.

However, when thinking about budget, first decide if you’re going to sell your pins—or give them away to fans. If you’re going to sell them, this will recoup your expenses and can even bring in profits for the team.

2. Team Colors

When designing your pins, always be sure to use your team colors! Some teams also like to include their mascot, if they have one.

That way, the pin will instantly be identified as belonging to your team. A reputable pin source should have no problem matching your colors precisely, so your pins are accurate.

3. Special Occasions

Have you considered creating a limited edition pin for a special occasion? If your team just won the finals or celebrated a milestone anniversary, that can be the perfect time to create a special pin.

It’s sure to be a big hit with your fans and supporters as well!

4. Production Time

Before ordering pins, check with your distributor to find out how long the wait time is. Sometimes, custom trading pins are slow to produce and can take weeks or even months.

If you’re eager for your pins or need them by a certain date, always check when they’ll arrive before placing the order.

5. Size

Another consideration, when designing pins, is size. You don’t want them too large, or they’ll be too heavy to wear on a hat or t-shirt.

However, if they’re too small, no one will be able to see them! Your pin trading company should be able to recommend the best size, based on the complexity of your design.

Designing Baseball Trading Pins Is Easy With These Tips

Your team, your fans, and even your opposition are sure to love the fun of collecting and trading baseball trading pins! To get started, use the tips above to start thinking about your pin design, including the text, colors, and shape

Then, look for an online pin production company that can bring your vision to life! Once your new pins arrive, get ready to watch the eyes of your players light up with excitement!

Did you find this article helpful? If so, please read on to find more informative content and ideas.

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Different ideas about Tennis Skirts



tennis skirts with pockets

A tennis skirt and a plaid skirt, paired with a long-sleeved shirt, are the perfect match.

Collection of ideas for dressing in 2021 style super cute those girls shouldn’t miss. Tennis skirts and plaid skirts that are paired with long-sleeved shirts that are super cool, definitely not out of trend. Dressing that is suitable for mini size girls; small girls should not miss it.

Hello all lovely girls. Now the confidence of girls like us there must be a dress to enhance our confidence for sure. Today, I will introduce the most popular dressing among girls like us with dressing. Tennis skirts and plaid skirts, paired with long-sleeved shirts, are super cool and definitely not out of trend. With a dress that is suitable for mini size girls, sport girl style, small girls should not miss out on girl item if you miss it, you won’t be cute and can’t keep up with trends. Let me tell you. 

white tennis skirts

 Let’s go to the first look. With dressing a tennis skirt paired with a long sleeve shirt. Dressing up this look is a brown plaid tennis skirt. With a long-sleeve sweater without a brown pattern it’s a turtleneck shirt that comes out and goes very well with everyone. 

  • 1-Dressing like this is designed in the style of a sweet, cute girl. Tennis skirts are suitable for small girls and tennis skirts with pockets  looks more beautiful to wear. Because the important things we can put in pockets. It will easy to wear according to fashion. Skirt itself must be short for sure if a tall person wears very short indeed but this look is very easy to find.
tennis skirt
  • 2. Let’s continue with the second look. We continue with the look of the dress. The cutest tennis skirt in brown tones again. But the style of dress is not the same because this look is wearing the same tennis skirt, but it is a light-colored plaid pattern. The grid pattern is big and this pattern is very popular. It’s really good. Personally, that shirt will be a hoodie. Isn’t it weird if the hoodie is worn with a skirt? Or will it be beautiful to wear it out? Take a look at the pictures that I have suggested. That everyone is so cute Guaranteed or guaranteed. Put it out and look cute for sure.
  • 3. Let’s move on to the third look. This look comes in sweet tones. This look will be a sweater as well but different in that this shirt has a button on the front that can be worn full. Or it can be worn as a coat. Because it can be worn in two ways wear it anywhere, it’s super cute. Personally, the skirt is a little grayish purple. And the plaid pattern is cut into light brown, very well matched. Suitable for little girls if a chubby girl or a tall girl , chubby girls when wearing tennis skirts will make the skirt very short and may be easily porn. The girl is the same, but may not be as obscene as it is plump.
  • 4. Let’s move on to the next look. It will be exactly what we will recommend. outfit ideas with Best dressing style tennis skirt and popular patterns such as plaid skirts as well Continue to this look It’s a black long sleeve t-shirt. The skirt itself is a solid color. It’s all gray. If you want to wear it to look a little cool, I recommend a white skirt and a black shirt. Or it’s all black; it’s the most bangs for the buck.
  • 5. Let’s move on to the 5th dressing style. It’s a dress that’s chill, but when it comes out Bang, not expensive, wearing a sweet skirt at all. With this look, it’s a sport girl look that can be worn for exercise and can continue walking in the mall because this sport girl is mixed with the cool Korean style. At the end of the workout, I still wear it like this and continue walking in the mall. Is to say that it’s a chill look but it’s the coolest.

6. Everyone comes in the form of a cute little girl friend. It’s a look that is paired up and fits very well. Because what is it you know? Because she wears exactly the same outfit the only difference is the color but must be friends with the same style definitely not arguing with the dress. Dress up for girls or may not be the same But the color goes in one direction, it’s passed. Dressing up this look is a plain tennis skirt. There is no pattern at all. And wear it as a white t-shirt with only the skins embroidered with stylish letters Wearing just this is cute (and then) but try it and you’ll love it for sure because it’s so bang.

See Also – Serve Spin use to advance your Table Tennis Game

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How COVID has impacted US sports



There is no doubt that the deadly Coronavirus infection that swept across the world in early 2020 and continues to remain in the middle of 2021 has had a huge impact on the way the world is and will likely be in the near future.

The entire world’s population have had to change the way they live and have all had to make sacrifices that many would have thought unimaginable at times, whilst businesses have all had to struggle to cope, with many having had the heart-breaking realisation that they needed to stop operations as they could no longer sustain operations.

The sports industry is another that has felt the impact of COVID in the past, with US sports one such sector that has felt the impact strongly.

Admittedly, sports have since returned to near-normality in many parts of the world, although full attendances are still something that is not quite as prevalent in some countries as it is in others, however there appear to be some encouraging signs that things are rather positive, such as the fact that Colorado sports stadiums are lifting restrictions already according to

Indeed, that is a great thing for many of the American citizens, as sports continue to play a large role in their daily lives as it is a cultural thing and something that many are extremely passionate about.

However, there was not always a positive outlook on things; especially during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Sports viewership was actually down

In America, it would seem mad that sports viewership would be down during the outbreak of the deadly virus, however data found that this was the case.

Although there were plenty of events continuing to take place – albeit without fans in attendance at stadiums and venues – the viewership had declined. There are a number of different reasons as to why this may have happened, with many pointing to the fact that talking about sports is a social event in itself and with people unable to mix, there was less of a need to watch what was happening.

Despite the fact that the NFL, NHL, NBA, WNBA and top Golf competitions all took place, as well as horse racing events and other sports, there simply appeared to be less interest in watching them on TV. It could, though, be argued that the decline was more down to the casual viewer rather than the sports-mad viewer, though.

US Sports not bringing in the same revenue

One of the biggest things that many will associate with the COVID outbreak – aside from the fatalities experienced – is the damage it did to the overall economy on a global scale. Almost every single person in the world will have been impacted in some way, which will have meant that less money was being spent.

In addition, sports teams were hit hard in the US as fans were unable to buy sports tickets or go to venues and buy merchandise or visit a food cart and purchase food and drink, therefore meaning less and less money was being generated by the organisation.

The lack of money will have had a huge impact on the US sports industry, as many would have been feeling the pinch, whilst it will have had a greater impact on the community that they are based within, as well. Sporting events have a huge impact on the local area, but with COVID, that impact will have been devastating.

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How to Start Right with Fly Fishing



Best destinations Fishing Trips in Seychelles

Fishing is a hugely popular sport in the UK with estimates putting it at more than 3 million anglers. Fishing is a great hobby, but you have to start somewhere. If you want to start right, here are our fly fishing tips for beginners.

Decide how you are going to learn

You can’t just pick up a rod and fly fish. You have to learn some fly fishing knots and how to bait the rod and cast. You have options here. You could learn from a book or watch tutorials online and YouTube. Online tutorials can introduce the whole process or focus on just one aspect such as how to cast. You can take fishing lessons – check your local tackle shop, or if you have a friendly fisherman mate, ask them to teach you.

Get your kit

You are probably going to be completely bamboozled by the range of equipment available for fly fishing. The sheer quantity of rods, reels, lines and flies is immense. It really is best to get some advice on this. Again, your local tackle shop will help.

They will probably suggest a nine-foot, five-weight rod as these are considered the best rods for beginners. They will also be able to advise you on the best fly fishing reels for beginners. You might also think about a starter kit which will give you everything you need.

If you are able, hire your equipment to give you a chance to decide if you want to take up fly fishing before you invest in your own kit.

Learn about leaders and tippets (and get some)

Tippets and leaders are essentials items in your tackle box. The leader connects your fly to your line to enable your fly to land where you want it to. It varies in size and is thin and translucent. The tippet is basically, an extension to the tippet. The best advice for you here is to use the same brand of tippet and leader.

Buy some flies

 You can’t fly fish without flies! This is an area that you’ll grow more familiar with as you become a seasoned fisherman. Part of the attraction of fly fishing is the flies. They can be incredibly beautiful, and you can learn to tie flies as a side hobby to your fishing.

Do some research into which flies are best for the area you want to fish and the fish you hope to catch. You’ll need to learn the difference between streamers, nymphs and dry flies. You can find selection boxes that are good for beginners.

Learn a few different casts

You can learn how to cast from YouTube or a guide and you need to practice the basic one. One cast however will not be enough. The overhead cast is the most often used but you might learn the roll cast or the back cast.

You can practice in any wide, open outdoor space, trying until you can successfully land your line in the same area (it’s a good idea to give yourself a marked target).

Learn to tie a couple of knots

Knotting can be complicated so there are some simple knots that most beginners will learn. These are the surgeons knot and the clinch knot. These will see you through your first fly fishing sessions.

Get the rest of your tackle

There is no need to splash out on every bit of fly fishing equipment. You only need the basic items to get started because you don’t want the expense if you don’t take to the sport. Your basic kit should include the tools you need when you get your first catch. This means a net and scissor clamps.

The best nets are those with a rubber mesh pocket as these don’t damage the fish scales – an important factor if you’re fishing in a catch and release area.

Decide where you are going to fish

The most important thing to know is if the area you’re considering allows fishing. You also need a licence for freshwater fly fishing in England and Wales (check local government sites for rules in Scotland and Northern Ireland). Licences are inexpensive but essential as you can be fined up to £2.500 for fishing without one.

All that remains now is for you to get out on the water and cast your line. We hope you enjoyed this article and are inspired enough to take up fly fishing. Please show your appreciation by sharing this article or leave us a comment. Happy fishing!

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KBC Lottery Winner 2021 List WhatsApp – Watch KBC Geo Lottery Winner 2021 List Today



KBC Lottery

KBC Lottery Winner 2021 Listed WhatsApp – Kaun Banega Millionaire (KBC) show hosted by Amitabh Bachchan. The rumor of WhatsApp being on the 2021 list of recent KBC lottery winners has been in quite a discussion.  Is KBC running an online lottery? What the KBC Lottery Winner 2021 list has about WhatsApp is what viewers can think of.

 A message spread on WhatsApp informs you that you are the winner of KBC Lottery 2021 and you have won 25 lakhs. KBC Lottery Winner 2021 List To know the real facts of WhatsApp, KBC Lottery Winner 2021 25 Million List Today and KBC Lottery Fake WhatsApp Number, read this article. Visitors must know about KBC Lottery Winner 2021 List WhatsApp and share this information with their friends.

KBC Lottery Winners 2020 List WhatsApp

Kaun Banega Millionaire (KBC) 2020 started and we knew that KBC 2020 was hosted by Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan. As the grand show continues, there are rumors that KBC is running a lottery on WhatsApp. Is the KBC Lottery Winner 2021 List WhatsApp Original? The fact is that there is no KBC lottery. What is this KBC jio lottery winner 2021 list all about? Let’s find out from this article.

Check KBC lottery number

What may surprise viewers about the KBC lottery number check is that there is nothing like it. KBC does not conduct online lotteries on WhatsApp. But recently a viral message has been circulated claiming that there will be a lucky draw and that the person has a chance to win the lottery prize of Rs 25 lakh. It said that KBC JIO is conducting a lucky draw lottery.

The message further mentioned that this lucky draw was made by famous personalities like KBC JIO Amitabh Bachchan, Mukesh Ambani, and even Narendra Modi. It also provides a WhatsApp number in the message for more information on how to get the widget amount. But it’s all fake, so viewers must be careful when receiving this kind of fake news.

KBC Lottery Winners 2021 25 Million List Today

Kaun Banega Millionaire 2021 is not conducting any online lottery, but the KBC lottery is running on a few websites. Visitors are advised not to visit those fake websites. And don’t provide your bank details or any personal information on those fake websites.

KBC Lottery Fake WhatsApp Number

According to KBC Lottery rumors, people are very interested to know about the KBC Lottery. As in previous months, KBC lottery fake news has spread widely. However, there is no such KBC lottery and if you get any rumors about the KBC lottery, just ignore those messages.

KBC registration for 2021

KBC is a quiz game show where you can win up to 10 million. The questions are chosen from a variety of topics and genres to make it harder for the game to reach 1 million people. Legendary Bollywood actor Mr. Amitabh Bachchan was the host of Seasons 1 to 12 except for one season (Season 3) where Shah Rukh Khan was the host. The first season of KBC aired in 2000 and the twelfth season aired in 2020. The next season will air in 2021 and you can apply online to take part in the game show.

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